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天气冲击、回忆误差与健康

Weather shocks, recall error and health
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Annika Herr", "affiliation": ["Leibniz University Hannover"]}, {"name": "Soschia Karimi", "affiliation": ["Leibniz University Hannover"]}, {"name": "Julian Wichert", "affiliation": ["Leibniz University Hannover"]}]

中文摘要

越来越多的文献表明,热应激和降水不足可能对人类健康构成重大威胁,尤其是在应对能力较低、暴露程度较高的欠发达国家。本研究的目标有二。第一,我们通过将纵向调查数据与客观气象数据相连接,揭示泰国农村地区对干旱事件的回忆情况。在此,调查设计中的一个异常之处充当了一项自然实验。我们发现,两次调查之间较短的时间间隔对家庭正确报告干旱事件具有较大的正向影响。第二,我们通过比较两种干旱衡量指标,考察干旱对健康的影响。在跨越七轮调查的面板数据中,我们发现干旱对疾病具有强烈影响,且使用客观衡量指标时的影响略强于使用报告的干旱衡量指标时的影响。 • 热应激和干旱会带来健康风险,尤其是在低收入国家。 • 一项自然实验表明,较短的时间间隔可改善冲击回忆。 • 干旱暴露与疾病发病率上升密切相关。 • 相较于报告的干旱指标,气象衡量指标对健康显示出更强的效应。

Abstract

A growing body of literature indicates that heat stress and precipitation deficiencies can pose a critical threat to human health, particularly in less developed countries with low coping capacities and high exposure. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we shed light on the recall of drought events in rural Thailand by linking longitudinal survey data with objective meteorological data. Here, an anomaly in the survey design serves as a natural experiment. We find that a shorter time interval between surveys has a large positive effect on households correctly reporting a drought event. Second, we examine the health effects of droughts comparing two drought measures. In our panel over seven waves, we find a strong effect on diseases, which is slightly stronger for the objective measure than when using the reported drought measure. • Heat stress and droughts cause health risks, especially in low-income countries. • A natural experiment shows that a shorter time interval improves shock recall. • Drought exposure is strongly associated with increased disease incidence. • Meteorological measures show stronger effects on health than reported droughts.
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