新建跨区域输电系统的减排效应: 来自中国特高压项目的证据
Pollution reduction effects of new transregional power transmission systems: Evidence from ultra-high-voltage projects of China
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Shenggang Ren", "affiliation": ["Central South University"]}, {"name": "Li Zhao", "affiliation": ["Central South University"]}, {"name": "Peng Zhang", "affiliation": ["Yunnan University of Finance And Economics"]}, {"name": "Caiquan Bai", "affiliation": ["Yunnan University of Finance And Economics"]}, {"name": "Peng Zhang", "affiliation": ["Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen"]}, {"name": "Caiquan Bai", "affiliation": ["Xiangtan University"]}]
中文摘要
许多国家因能源供需的地理错配而面临挑战。传统高压输电系统在满足日益增长的跨区域电力输送需求方面容量有限。中国近期发展的特高压（UHV）输电系统为此提供了一个有前景的解决方案。本研究利用企业层面的排放和能源消费数据，量化了特高压输电的污染减排效应。采用考虑地区异质性的交错双重差分（DID）设计，我们发现特高压线路的运行使企业 SO2 总排放量平均降低了 16.8%，排放强度降低了 17.1%。机制分析表明，特高压系统提供了低成本且稳定的电力，促进了电力输入地区的电气化；同时，它还提升了电力输出地区的水力发电量，从而在电力输入地区替代了火力发电。福利分析显示，在 2.5% 的贴现率下，纳入环境效益后，特高压项目的投资回收期从 28 年缩短至 5 年。这些发现有助于对跨区域电力基础设施进行全面评估，特别是在电网现代化是关键能源政策目标的发展中经济体中。
Abstract
Many countries face challenges due to the geographical mismatch of energy supply and demand. Traditional high-voltage transmission systems have limited capacity to meet the rising need for transregional electricity transfer. China's recently developed ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission system presents a promising solution. This study quantifies the pollution reduction effects of UHV transmission using firm-level data on emissions and energy consumption. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) design that accounts for regional heterogeneity, we find that the operation of UHV lines reduces firms' total SO2 emissions by 16.8 % on average and emission intensity by 17.1 %. Mechanism analysis indicates that the UHV system provides low-cost and stable electricity, facilitating electrification in power importing areas. It also boosts hydropower generation in power exporting areas, displacing thermal power in power importing areas. Welfare analysis shows that incorporating environmental benefits reduces the investment payback period of UHV projects from 28 years to 5 years at a 2.5 % discount rate. These findings contribute to a comprehensive evaluation of transregional electricity infrastructure, particularly in developing economies where grid modernization is a key energy policy goal.