移民迁出对劳动力市场的影响: 来自印度尼西亚国内移民的证据

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "David Buller", "affiliation": ["University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"]}, {"name": "Marieke Kleemans", "affiliation": ["University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign"]}]

中文摘要

我们研究印度尼西亚国内迁移对来源地非迁移者劳动力市场结果的影响。为解决迁移决策的内生性问题，我们以目的地地区的 shift-share 劳动力需求冲击与历史迁移模式的交互项作为迁出率的工具变量。利用对超过 36,000 名个体进行 27 年追踪的详细纵向数据，我们发现迁出率每增加 1 个百分点，留守来源地者的小时收入增加 3.42%。鉴于印度尼西亚非正规程度较高，我们进一步分别考察正规部门和非正规部门劳动者所受的影响。与双部门劳动力市场模型一致，我们发现就业效应集中在正规部门，而收入效应在非正规部门最为显著。尽管迁出者受教育程度往往更高，但受教育程度较低的非迁移者受益最大，因为他们转向正规部门工作，并从非正规部门更高的收入中获益。

Abstract

We study the effects of internal migration in Indonesia on labor market outcomes of non-migrants in origin areas. To address endogeneity of the decision to migrate, we instrument emigration rates with shift-share labor demand shocks in destination areas interacted with historical migration patterns. Using detailed longitudinal data from over 36,000 individuals, whom we observe over a 27-year period, we find that a one percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 3.42% increase in hourly income for those who stay in origin areas. Given the high degree of informality in Indonesia, we then look separately at effects for formal- and informal-sector workers. In line with a dual-sector labor market model, we find that employment effects are concentrated in the formal sector and income effects are most pronounced in the informal sector. Even though emigrants tend to be higher-educated, lower-educated non-migrants benefit the most as they switch to formal sector work and benefit from higher earnings in the informal sector.