碳排放交易体系的有效性: 来自中国区域市场的证据

Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Yue Li", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Jing Zhao", "affiliation": ["University of International Business and Economics"]}]

中文摘要

本文评估了中国区域碳市场的有效性；这些市场在2018年覆盖了6.92亿吨二氧化碳排放量，超过欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）覆盖量的40%。利用综合性城市层面面板数据和合成双重差分估计，我们发现，中国区域排放交易体系在未对以夜间灯光及企业层面收入和利润衡量的城市经济活动产生负面影响的情况下，显著减少了碳排放。这表明，碳减排可以与经济增长并行。减排是通过广泛的结构转型和绿色技术采用实现的，而非绿色创新。在电力部门竞争更激烈、地方国家能力更强的地区，这种效应更为明显。最后，我们未发现碳泄漏至邻近地区，或与排放交易体系城市存在密切生产联系的城市的证据。

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of China's regional carbon markets, which in 2018 covered 692 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, over 40 % of the coverage of the European Union's ETS. Utilizing a comprehensive city-level panel and synthetic difference-in-differences estimation, we find that China's regional ETSs significantly reduced carbon emissions without negatively impacting city-level economic activities, as measured by nighttime lights and firm-level revenue and profit. This suggests that carbon mitigation can occur alongside economic growth. Emissions reduction was achieved through broad structural transformation and green technologies adoption, rather than green innovation. Effects are more pronounced in regions with greater power sector competition and stronger local state capacity. Finally, we find no evidence of carbon leakage to neighboring areas or to cities with close production ties to ETS cities.