Digitalization as a double-edged sword: Winning services and losing manufacturing in India
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Yutong Chen", "affiliation": ["The University of Texas at Arlington"]}]
中文摘要
数字化可以提高企业生产率，但在存在劳动力市场摩擦的发展中国家，并非所有企业都能利用数字化机会。本研究利用印度的数据——一项废钞政策导致数字支付大幅增加——考察数字化在短期内对发展中国家跨部门企业的影响。我发现，服务业企业的收入和生产率实现增长，而制造业企业则出现下降。随后，我探讨了驱动这种分化的机制。结果显示，服务业企业在信息与通信技术（ICT）资本上投入更多，并雇用了更多互补性的熟练ICT劳动力，而制造业企业并未如此。值得注意的是，由于空间劳动力流动性有限，涌入服务业的这些熟练ICT工人来自制造业部门。在此期间，ICT劳动力的工资被推高，而其他工人的工资则保持停滞。这些发现凸显了在存在劳动力市场约束的情况下，数字化如何加剧生产率增长的短期部门分化，并有助于揭示其对发展中国家增长轨迹的影响。
Abstract
Digitalization can increase firm productivity, but in developing countries with labor market frictions, not all firms are able to capitalize on digitalization opportunities. This study uses data from India – where a demonetization policy led to a large increase in digital payments – to examine the impacts of digitalization on firms across sectors in a developing country in the short run. I find that service firms experienced growth in income and productivity while manufacturing firms witnessed a decline. I then explore the mechanisms driving this divergence. The results show that service firms invested more in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and hired more complementary skilled ICT labor, whereas manufacturing firms did not. Notably, this influx of skilled ICT workers into the service sector was drawn from the manufacturing sector due to limited spatial labor mobility. During this period, wages for ICT labor were driven up while remaining stagnant for other workers. These findings underscore how digitalization, in the presence of labor market constraints, can exacerbate short-term sectoral divergence in productivity growth and shed light on its impacts on the growth trajectories of developing countries.