贸易政策与出口商韧性: 来自印度尼西亚的证据
Trade policy and exporters’ resilience: Evidence from Indonesia
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Massimiliano Calì", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Simón Caicedo Graciano", "affiliation": ["Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "Devaki Ghose", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Angella Faith Montfaucon", "affiliation": ["World Bank"]}, {"name": "Michèle Ruta", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}]
中文摘要
贸易政策如何影响出口商采购中间投入品、并因应外部冲击调整出口的能力？本文利用印度尼西亚企业所面临非关税措施（NTMs）的新的细分、时变数据展开分析。人民币贬值使中国出口在第三方市场更具竞争力；作为回应，在投入品上面临非关税措施的印尼企业，其出口值的下降幅度远大于不面临任何非关税措施的企业，且这一效应的大小因非关税措施类型而异。我们表明，这一差异可以由以下因素解释：面临非关税措施的企业在人民币贬值时无法利用来自中国更便宜的中间投入品，这与非关税措施对进口施加固定成本的模型相一致。这些发现表明，改革某些类型的进口非关税措施可以对出口商的韧性产生积极影响。
Abstract
How does trade policy affect exporters’ ability to source intermediate inputs and adjust exports in response to foreign shocks? The analysis exploits new disaggregated, time-varying data on non-tariff measures (NTMs) faced by Indonesian firms. In response to a depreciation of the Yuan, which makes Chinese exports more competitive in third markets, Indonesian firms facing NTMs on their inputs see a much larger drop in their export values compared to firms that do not face any NTMs, with the magnitude of this effect varying depending on the type of NTM. We show that this difference can be explained by the inability of firms facing NTMs to take advantage of cheaper intermediate inputs from China in the face of depreciations of the Yuan, consistent with a model where NTMs impose fixed costs of import. These findings suggest that reforming some types of import NTMs can positively affect exporters’ resilience.