肃清帮派：基于网络视角的严厉打击犯罪政策效应
Sweeping up Gangs: The Effects of Tough-on-Crime Policies from a Network Approach
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · [{"name": "Magdalena Domínguez", "affiliation": ["Institute for Fiscal Studies", "Fundación Ramón Domínguez"]}]
中文摘要
在全球范围内, 打击帮派扩散主要依靠扫荡行动。本文采用双重差分策略, 考察扫荡行动对被逮捕个体及其同伴犯罪的因果影响。分析聚焦于经历了显著政策转变的巴塞罗那大都市区。研究结果显示, 被逮捕者及其同伴的犯罪分别显著减少了 85% 和 31%。证据表明, 前者源于隔离剥夺犯罪能力 (incapacitation), 后者源于犯罪环境的减弱。一项反事实分析表明, 更广泛地瞄准关键参与者本可使犯罪额外减少 43 个百分点。这意味着网络分析有助于改进政策制定。(JEL C31, H56, K14, K42, Z18)
Abstract
Globally, gang proliferation is fought primarily through sweeps. This paper uses a difference-in-differences strategy to examine their causal impact on crime for arrested individuals and their peers. Analysis focuses on the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, which underwent a notable policy shift. Findings reveal significant crime reductions among those arrested and their peers of 85 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Evidence suggests the first stems from incapacitation and the second from less criminal environment. A counterfactual exercise suggests that broader targeting of key players could have reduced crime by 43 percentage points more. This implies network analysis could enhance policy formulation. (JEL C31, H56, K14, K42, Z18)