Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Nan Sandi", "affiliation": ["University of Oxford"]}]
中文摘要
本文反转了标准的资源—冲突范式，考察资源收缩（而非扩张）如何影响国内暴力。利用缅甸2016年暂停发放新采矿许可证的禁令，我使用一个新颖的空间分解数据库，将采矿活动与2011—2020年间地理编码的冲突事件相连接，实施了双重差分策略。该收缩使此前获得许可的镇区冲突事件——尤其是暴力事件和致命事件——减少了69%。效应在族群家园、较贫困地区和偏远地区更强。引人注目的是，分析揭示了正向的空间溢出效应：邻近的非采矿地区冲突也随之下降，表明资源开采的减少扩散了和平，而非转移了暴力。证据支持三种机制：（1）较低的矿产租金约束了武装团体的融资；（2）劳动力向生产性部门的再配置提高了暴力的机会成本；（3）精英租金减少缓解了地方不平等，从而抑制了基于不满的动员。
Abstract
This paper inverts the standard resource-conflict paradigm by examining how resource contraction, rather than expansion, affects civil violence. Exploiting a 2016 moratorium in Myanmar that halted new mining licenses, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy using a novel spatially disaggregated database linking mining activity with geo-coded conflict events from 2011–2020. The contraction led to a 69% reduction in conflict incidents — particularly violent and fatal events — in previously licensed townships. The effects were stronger in ethnic homelands, poorer areas, and remote regions. Strikingly, the analysis uncovers positive spatial spillovers: conflict also declined in neighboring non-mining areas, suggesting that reduced resource extraction diffuses peace rather than displacing violence. Evidence supports three mechanisms: (1) lower mineral rents constrained armed group financing; (2) labor reallocation to productive sectors increased the opportunity cost of violence; and (3) reduced elite rents mitigated local inequality, dampening grievance-based mobilization.