投票站位置与投票成本
Polling Place Location and the Costs of Voting
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · [{"name": "Gaurav R Bagwe", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Juan Margitic", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Allison Stashko", "affiliation": ["Emory University"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用宾夕法尼亚州和佐治亚州的数据, 采用地理断点回归设计, 研究到投票站的距离如何影响投票的可能性。到投票站的距离每增加一英里, 会使亲自投票的可能性降低 1 至 3 个百分点。对于距离投票站最近的人群, 这一效应要高出两到三倍。在可以选择邮寄投票时, 随着到投票站距离的增加, 选民会转向邮寄投票。在反事实分析中, 我们识别出能使投票率最大化的投票站。一些选区在投票率上存在较大的潜在提升空间, 即便只能从现有建筑中进行选择也是如此。(JEL D72, K16, R23)
Abstract
We study how distance to one’s polling place affects the likelihood of voting using a geographic regression discontinuity design with data from Pennsylvania and Georgia. A one-mile increase in distance to the polling place reduces the likelihood of voting in person by 1 to 3 percentage points. Effects are two to three times higher among those closest to the polling place. When available, voters substitute to mail-in voting as distance to the polling place increases. In counterfactual exercises, we identify turnout-maximizing polling places. Some precincts have large potential gains in turnout, even when choosing from existing buildings. (JEL D72, K16, R23)