Journal of Economic Literature · 2025 · Òscar Jordà、Alan M. Taylor
中文摘要
应用研究中的一个核心问题是估计外生干预或冲击对结果变量的影响。该干预可能在冲击发生当期及其后续时期内，对结果变量和控制变量产生影响。此外，结果变量、控制变量与干预之间还可能存在后续的反馈效应。局部投影法可以厘清这些相互作用中的许多关系。该方法的简洁性使其成为实证研究者工具箱中一种便捷且用途广泛的工具，且可推广应用于复杂情境。本文旨在为实践者综述该领域的前沿进展，并讨论局部投影方法的最佳实践、可能的扩展及其局限性。(JEL C32, C33, C36, E23, E24)
Abstract
A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls, and the intervention. Many of these interactions can be untangled using local projections. This method’s simplicity makes it a convenient and versatile tool in the empiricist’s kit, one that is generalizable to complex settings. This article reviews the state of the art for the practitioner and discusses best practices and possible extensions of local projections methods, along with their limitations. (JEL C32, C33, C36, E23, E24)