中文摘要
我们生活在一个充满不确定性的世界。在本文中，我表明，在经济分析中更多地体现这一现象，有助于我们加深对金融市场运作方式以及如何最好地设计审慎经济政策的理解。本文探讨了一些方法，这些方法允许对不确定性进行比经济研究中通常更宽泛的概念化。这些方法借鉴决策理论的洞见，以开展不确定性量化和敏感性分析。经济学中的不确定性量化不同于大多数科学中的不确定性量化，因为不确定性既存在于外部观察者的视角，也存在于模型内部个人和企业的视角。我在两个示例经济体中阐述了这些方法，在这两个示例中，对长期增长的理解是有限的。一个例子考察了不确定性对金融市场波动的连锁影响，另一个例子则考虑了当气候变化的量级及其对经济机会的影响未知时，如何审慎设计政策。
Abstract
We live in a world filled with uncertainty. In this essay, I show that featuring this phenomenon more in economic analyses adds to our understanding of how financial markets work and how best to design prudent economic policy. This essay explores methods that allow for a broader conceptualization of uncertainty than is typical in economic investigations. These methods draw on insights from decision theory to engage in uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Uncertainty quantification in economics differs from uncertainty quantification in most sciences because there is uncertainty from the perspective both of an external observer and of people and enterprises within the model. I illustrate these methods in two example economies in which the understanding of long-term growth is limited. One example looks at uncertainty ramifications for fluctuations in financial markets, and the other considers the prudent design of policy when the quantitative magnitude of climate change and its impact on economic opportunities are unknown.