发展政策难以捉摸的和平红利: 从战争陷阱到宏观互补性
The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities
Annual Review of Economics · 2021 · [{"name": "Dominic Rohner", "affiliation": ["Centre for Economic Policy Research", "University of Lausanne"]}, {"name": "Mathias Thoenig", "affiliation": ["Centre for Economic Policy Research", "University of Lausanne"]}]
中文摘要
本文回顾了关于内战与发展的文献，重点关注暴力的社会经济后果以及有望促进和平的政策。我们提出四个主要观点。第一，冲突之所以仍常被忽视为发展的关键因素，原因之一在于冲突成本通常被低估，尤其是威慑的影子成本。第二，存在若干类型的战争陷阱，从经济和政治两方面阻碍国家发展。第三，要打破这些陷阱，政策必须经过校准，以同时应对贫困和社会紧张局势，因为和平与发展目标之间存在很强的宏观互补性。我们记录了那些忽视这一双重挑战的单一目标政策可能如何惨败，并深入讨论了一系列尤为有前景的政策。第四，我们强调了新型数据收集方法日益增长的潜力，以及在暴力情境下对政策评估工具的需求。
Abstract
This article reviews the literature on civil conflict and development with a focus on the socioeconomic consequences of violence and on promising policies for fostering peace. We make four main points. First, one of the reasons conflict is still often overlooked as key factor for development is that conflict costs are typically underestimated, in particular the shadow costs of deterrence. Second, there are several types of war traps that hold countries back, both economically and politically. Third, to break these traps, policies must be calibrated to address jointly both poverty and social tensions, as there is a strong macro complementarity between peace and development objectives. We document how single-minded policies that ignore this dual challenge can spectacularly fail, and we discuss in depth a series of particularly promising policies. Fourth, we highlight the increasing potential of novel data collection methodologies and the need for policy evaluation tools in violent contexts.