宏观审慎政策的国际维度
The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy
Annual Review of Economics · 2020 · [{"name": "Kristin J. Forbes", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "National Bureau of Economic Research", "Massachusetts Institute of Technology"]}]
中文摘要
各国正更积极地使用宏观审慎工具，旨在提升其更广泛金融体系的韧性。越来越多的证据表明，这些工具能够实现特定的国内目标，并应能降低一国在面对诸多国内外冲击时的脆弱性。然而，证据同样表明，这些政策并非灵丹妙药：它们无法使经济体免受波动影响，还会向非银行金融体系产生泄漏，并通过国际借贷及其他跨境敞口产生溢出效应。这些非预期后果中的一部分可能削弱宏观审慎政策的有效性，并催生新的脆弱性与风险。“新冠危机”为评估当前宏观审慎监管在极端市场波动与经济压力时期的有效性提供了一个观察视角。迄今为止的经验表明，宏观审慎工具确能带来一定益处，应继续作为宏观经济政策的重点，但对其所能实现的目标应抱有现实的预期。
Abstract
Countries are using macroprudential tools more actively with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader financial systems. A growing body of evidence suggests that these tools can accomplish specific domestic goals and should reduce country vulnerability to many domestic and international shocks. The evidence also suggests, however, that these policies are not an elixir. They will not insulate economies from volatility and they generate leakages to the non-bank financial system and spillovers through international borrowing, lending and other cross-border exposures. Some of these unintended consequences can mitigate the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and generate new vulnerabilities and risks. The “Corona Crisis” provides a lens to evaluate the effectiveness of current macroprudential regulations during a period of extreme market volatility and economic stress. Experience to date suggests that macroprudential tools provide some benefits and should remain a focus of macroeconomic policy, but with realistic expectations about what they can accomplish.