毒品非刑事化增加了过量用药吗?
Did Drug Decriminalization Increase Overdoses
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "David Hall", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Benjamin Hansen", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Kyutaro Matsuzawa", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们利用俄勒冈州第110号措施和华盛顿州Blake裁决，研究毒品非刑事化对过量用药死亡率的影响。合成控制估计表明，两种非刑事化制度均大幅减少了毒品逮捕，且相对于匹配的反事实情形，此后过量用药死亡率持续上升。估计结果表明，2021年至2023年期间，俄勒冈州约有1,186例超额死亡，华盛顿州约有1,895例超额死亡。我们还重新考察了芬太尼供给冲击的作用。芬太尼占比控制变量可能部分捕捉了执法导致的非芬太尼NFLIS报告下降，而替代性的芬太尼衡量指标则仍显示出正的过量用药效应。
Abstract
We study the effect of drug decriminalization on overdose mortality using Oregon's Measure 110 and Washington's Blake decision. Synthetic-control estimates show that both decriminalization regimes sharply reduced drug arrests and were followed by sustained increases in overdose mortality relative to matched counterfactuals. The estimates imply approximately 1,186 excess deaths in Oregon and 1,895 in Washington from 2021 through 2023. We also revisit the role of fentanyl supply shocks. A fentanyl-share control may partly capture enforcement-driven declines in non-fentanyl NFLIS reports, while alternative fentanyl measures leave positive overdose effects.