女性自主权的兴起与生育率的下降: 错配的作用
The Rise of Female Autonomy and the Decline of Fertility: The Role of Mismatch
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Claudia Goldin", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
当今世界各地的生育率都在下降，这一趋势在富裕国家可追溯至数十年前。自20世纪70年代中期以来，美国和欧洲的出生率一直低于更替水平。就美国而言，1955年出生队列的已完成生育率低于1975年出生队列。最初下降的原因涉及女性自主权的增强，以及男女意愿之间的错位：男性通常从维持传统中获益更多，女性则往往从摒弃传统中获益更多。当男性放弃传统的概率较低时，一些职业女性将不会生育，另一些则会推迟生育。
Abstract
The fertility decline is everywhere in the world today and goes back decades for rich countries. Birthrates have been below replacement in the U.S. and Europe since the mid-1970s. Completed cohort fertility in the U.S. was lower for those born in 1955 than for 1975. The reasons for the initial declines involve greater female autonomy and a mismatch between the desires of men and women. Men generally benefit more from maintaining traditions; women often benefit more from eschewing them. When the probability is low that men will abandon traditions, some career women will not have children and others will delay.