土地集中与边疆美国的长期发展
Land Concentration and Long-Run Development in the Frontier United States
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Cory Smith", "affiliation": ["University of Maryland, College Park"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究土地集中对美国边疆地区的长期经济影响。利用棋盘式分配公式在初始土地配置中产生的准随机变异，我分析了一个大型不动产评估数据库，发现历史上的土地集中使现代土地价值降低了 4.5%，使固定资本降低了 23%。现代效应规模为其历史对应值的 23%–64%，表明在过去 150 年中既存在显著的持续性，也存在显著的趋同。利用佃农合同的档案数据，我认为分成协议的低强度激励抑制了大规模土地所有者的投资，并产生了长期影响。（JEL D82, G31, N41, N51, Q12, Q15, Q24）
Abstract
I study the long-run economic effects of land concentration on the American frontier. Using quasi-random variation in initial land allocations from a checkerboard formula, I analyze a large database of property assessments and find that historical concentration reduced modern land values by 4.5 percent and fixed capital by 23 percent. Modern effect sizes are 23–64 percent of their historical equivalents, indicating significant rates of both persistence and convergence over the last 150 years. Using archival data on tenant contracts, I argue that the low-powered incentives of share agreements discouraged investment by large-scale owners with long-term effects. (JEL D82, G31, N41, N51, Q12, Q15, Q24)