释放、拘留还是监视？电子监控对被告结果的影响
Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Roman Rivera", "affiliation": ["Public Policy Institute of California", "Georgetown University"]}]
中文摘要
本文研究审前电子监控（EM）相对于审前释放与审前羁押（监狱）的效果。电子监控通常要求被告佩戴电子手环，旨在以较低成本减少审前不当行为。利用保释法庭法官的准随机分配，本文估计了电子监控相对于释放、以及相对于羁押对审前不当行为、案件结果、未来再犯和总成本的影响。结果表明，相对于羁押，电子监控降低了总成本；然而，相对于释放，电子监控未能防止足够多的高成本犯罪，因而不足以证明其使用的合理性。（JEL K14, K41, K42）
Abstract
This paper studies the effect of pretrial electronic monitoring (EM) relative to both pretrial release and pretrial detention (jail). EM often involves a defendant wearing an electronic bracelet, which aims to reduce pretrial misconduct at a low cost. Using the quasi-random assignment of bond court judges, I estimate the effect of EM versus release and EM versus detention on pretrial misconduct, case outcomes, future recidivism, and aggregate total costs. Results indicate that EM reduces overall costs relative to detention. However, EM does not prevent enough high-cost crime to justify its use relative to release. (JEL K14, K41, K42)