流感疫苗在幼儿中的实际有效性
Real-World Effectiveness of the Influenza Vaccine in Young Children
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Michael L. Anderson", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}, {"name": "Carlos Dobkin", "affiliation": ["University of California, Santa Cruz"]}, {"name": "Devon Gorry", "affiliation": ["Clemson University"]}, {"name": "Hung-Fu Tseng", "affiliation": ["Kaiser Permanente"]}]
中文摘要
流感在儿童中造成大量疾病。随机对照试验（RCT）表明，流感疫苗可减少经主动监测发现的流感，但样本量不足以考察医疗服务提供者就诊等结果。本研究记录到，在季节性流感疫苗广泛可得时期进行儿童保健就诊的儿童，其接种疫苗的可能性比未在该时期就诊的儿童高 23.4 个百分点。利用大型行政医疗数据集，我们借助这一接种率变异表明，疫苗显著减少了门诊和急诊（ED）就诊。上述结果意味着，提高儿童流感疫苗接种的便利性可以大幅提高接种率并降低医疗支出。（JEL I11, I12, I18, J13）
Abstract
Influenza causes substantial illness among children. RCTs demonstrate that the influenza vaccine reduces active-surveillance-detected influenza but have insufficient samples to examine outcomes such as health care provider visits. This study documents that children whose well-child visits occur when the seasonal influenza vaccine is broadly available are 23.4 pp more likely to be vaccinated than children whose visits do not. Using large administrative health care datasets, we leverage this vaccination-rate variation to show that the vaccine reduces outpatient and ED visits significantly. The results imply that making pediatric influenza vaccinations more convenient could substantially increase vaccination rates and reduce health care expenditures. (JEL I11, I12, I18, J13)