中文摘要
The financing balance of urban metro construction depends primarily on revenue from land conveyance, closely linking it to the real estate cycle and profoundly affecting firms within the surrounding area. Using data on Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2023, this paper investigates the effects of urban metro station openings on the investment activities of nearby firms. The results show that metro station openings increase the investment levels of nearby firms and exacerbate overinvestment, specifically by inducing firms to increase local investment and establish more subsidiaries. Mechanism tests indicate that the collateral effect, business managers' expectations, and factor agglomeration resulting from improved commuting are the primary mechanisms influencing corporate investment. During real estate upswings, metro station openings primarily induce firms to increase investment and even exacerbate overinvestment by amplifying the collateral effect and improving managers' expectations, particularly by promoting the appreciation of investment properties. During real estate downturns, as the collateral effect and managers' expectations weaken, metro station openings affect corporate investment through the factor-agglomeration effect of improved commuting, which accelerates the concentration of high-quality labor and reduces firms' labor costs. Heterogeneity analyses show that these effects are more significant in cities with faster housing-price growth and higher population density and are more pronounced among firms with greater earnings volatility and higher agile responsiveness. Further analysis finds that metro station openings suppress firms' future returns on investment, reinforce the tendency for investment to become oriented toward real estate, and encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to cluster around metro stations. This paper enriches research on the micro-level corporate effects of the urban metro construction boom across different real estate cycles and helps deepen the understanding of how investment in urban infrastructure affects microeconomic activity.
Abstract
城市地铁建设的资金平衡主要依赖土地出让收入，这使得其与房地产周期紧密关联，并对区域内企业产生深刻影响。本文利用2009—2023年中国上市公司数据，探究城市地铁开通对周边企业投资活动的影响。研究发现，地铁站点开通会提高周边企业的投资水平并加剧过度投资，具体表现为企业会加大本地的投资力度，新设更多的子公司。机制检验表明，抵押品效应、企业经营者预期和通勤改善带来的要素集聚是影响企业投资的主要机制。在房地产上行周期，地铁开通主要通过放大抵押品效应、提高经营者预期，特别是推动投资性房地产增值，引致企业加大投资甚至加剧过度投资；而在房地产下行周期，抵押品效应和经营者预期弱化，地铁开通通过通勤改善的要素集聚效应，加快高质量劳动力的集聚，降低企业用工成本，进而影响企业投资。异质性分析表明，上述影响在房价增速较快、人口密度较高的城市中更显著，并在盈利波动率较高、敏捷响应度较高的企业中更明显。进一步分析发现，地铁开通会抑制企业未来的投资回报，强化投资“地产化”倾向，促使中小企业向站点周边集聚。本文丰富了不同房地产周期下城市地铁建设热潮的微观企业效应的研究，有助于深化对城市基础设施建设投资影响微观经济活动的理解。