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平等如何在1600—1870年的前工业日本制造贫困

How Equality Created Poverty in Preindustrial Japan, 1600–1870
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · Yuzuru Kumon

中文摘要

尽管经济制度较为发达, 但根据现有估计, 1600–1868 年的前现代日本实际工资处于最低之列, 约为前工业化英格兰的一半。然而, 由于土地继承制度的差异, 许多日本农民拥有土地, 这与大多无地的英格兰农民不同。利用马尔萨斯模型, 我表明, 这种更高的土地所有权平等反而导致了日本更低的工资和人均 GDP。来自日本村庄人口普查的证据支持了这一机制。如果正如许多历史学家所认为的那样, 西欧的高工资推动了工业化, 那么日本未能率先实现工业化, 可能正是由其不同寻常的前工业化平等所塑造的。(JEL D63, E23, J31, N15, N35, N45, N55)

Abstract

Despite well-developed economic institutions, premodern Japan, 1600–1868, had among the lowest real wages according to available estimates, around half those in preindustrial England. However, many Japanese peasants owned land, unlike their mostly landless English counterparts, due to institutional differences in land inheritance. Using a Malthusian model, I show that this greater landownership equality paradoxically led to Japan's lower wages and GDP per capita. Evidence from Japanese village censuses supports the mechanism. If, as many historians believe, high wages in Western Europe spurred industrialization, Japan's failure to industrialize first could have been shaped by its unusual preindustrial equality. (JEL D63, E23, J31, N15, N35, N45, N55)
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