索马里冲突的空间溢出效应
Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia
American Economic Review · 2022 · [{"name": "Marco Alfano", "affiliation": ["University of Strathclyde"]}, {"name": "Thomas Cornelissen", "affiliation": ["University of Essex"]}]
中文摘要
在索马里青年党叛乱期间，运输路线沿线的冲突显著推高了较远地区的玉米价格，进而降低了粮食安全、健康和教育水平。估计的冲突风险独立于已发生冲突而具有强烈的价格效应，凸显了安全担忧的重要性。一个存在冲突情形下最低成本路线选择的模型表明，用于绕开冲突的更多且更短的替代路线可以降低价格，但随着各路线间暴力相关性的增强，其有效性会减弱。另一种做法是，保障关键运输路线的安全将缓解价格上涨。基于市场准入的方法表明，冲突的空间溢出效应也会影响更广泛的食品与非食品篮子的价格。(JEL D74, I15, I25, O15, O17, Q11, R41)
Abstract
Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia’s al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items. (JEL D74, I15, I25, O15, O17, Q11, R41)