中文摘要
在索马里青年党叛乱期间，交通路线沿线的冲突显著推高了偏远地区的玉米价格，从而降低了粮食安全水平，并对健康和教育产生不利影响。估计的冲突风险独立于实际发生的冲突，对价格产生强烈影响，凸显了安全担忧的重要性。一个在存在冲突情况下的最低成本路线选择模型表明，更多且更短的绕开冲突的替代路线可以降低价格，但随着不同路线上暴力活动相关性的增强，其有效性会减弱。另一种办法是保障关键运输路线的安全，这将缓解价格上涨。市场可达性分析表明，冲突的空间溢出效应对更广泛的食品与非食品商品篮子的价格也具有重要影响。（JEL D74, I15, I25, O15, O17, Q11, R41）
Abstract
Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia’s al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items. (JEL D74, I15, I25, O15, O17, Q11, R41)