贸易对结构转型的本地效应与溢出效应：来自巴西的证据

中文摘要

本文利用巴西20世纪90年代改革所带来的准实验性关税削减，考察贸易自由化对结构转型的影响。在近期跨区域宏观经济学文献的基础上，我们扩展了传统的转移份额（shift-share）框架，以估计关税削减对各部门就业份额的本地效应和空间溢出效应，从而为总体结果提供洞见。受关税削减影响更大的地区出现了制造业就业下降、第一产业就业增加以及非贸易品部门就业减少。通过人口迁移或地理邻近性传导的溢出效应，部分抵消了制造业的本地去工业化，但加剧了非贸易品部门的就业下降。这些效应持续了二十余年，且在考虑了其他可能解释（包括相互竞争的结构转型假说以及分析期内的其他经济冲击）后依然稳健。总体而言，我们的研究结果支持这样一种理论：比较优势可能是贸易引致结构转型的潜在驱动力。

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on structural transformation, using quasi-experimental tariff reductions from Brazil's 1990s reforms. Building on recent cross-regional macroeconomic literature, we extend the traditional shift-share framework to estimate both local and spatial spillover effects on sectoral employment shares, providing insights on aggregate outcomes. Regions more exposed to tariff cuts saw declines in manufacturing employment, increases in the primary sector, and reductions in non-tradables. Spillover effects—mediated through migration or proximity—partially offset local deindustrialization in manufacturing but amplified declines in non-tradables. These effects persisted for over twenty years and proved robust to alternative explanations, including competing structural transformation hypotheses and other economic shocks during the period of analysis. Overall, our findings support theories highlighting comparative advantage as a potential driver of trade-induced structural transformation.