贸易对结构转型的本地与溢出效应: 来自巴西的证据

中文摘要

本文利用巴西20世纪90年代改革中具有准实验性质的关税削减，研究贸易自由化对结构转型的影响。基于近期跨区域宏观经济文献，我们扩展了传统的shift-share（移动份额）框架，以估计关税削减对部门就业份额的本地效应与空间溢出效应，从而为总体结果提供洞见。受关税削减影响更大的地区，制造业就业下降、初级部门就业增加、非贸易品部门就业减少。通过迁移或地理邻近性传导的溢出效应部分抵消了制造业的本地去工业化，但放大了非贸易品部门的下降。这些效应持续二十余年，且在纳入其他替代性解释（包括相互竞争的结构转型假说以及分析期间发生的其他经济冲击）后依然保持稳健。总体而言，本文的发现支持将比较优势视为贸易诱发结构转型潜在驱动因素的理论。

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on structural transformation, using quasi-experimental tariff reductions from Brazil's 1990s reforms. Building on recent cross-regional macroeconomic literature, we extend the traditional shift-share framework to estimate both local and spatial spillover effects on sectoral employment shares, providing insights on aggregate outcomes. Regions more exposed to tariff cuts saw declines in manufacturing employment, increases in the primary sector, and reductions in non-tradables. Spillover effects—mediated through migration or proximity—partially offset local deindustrialization in manufacturing but amplified declines in non-tradables. These effects persisted for over twenty years and proved robust to alternative explanations, including competing structural transformation hypotheses and other economic shocks during the period of analysis. Overall, our findings support theories highlighting comparative advantage as a potential driver of trade-induced structural transformation.