印度尼西亚的多代际教育流动性

Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Sarah Cattan", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Antonio Dalla-Zuanna", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Jan Stuhler", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Po Yin Wong", "affiliation": []}]

中文摘要

已有研究表明，在发达国家，标准的代际衡量指标会低估社会经济优势的长期持续性。我们从理论和实证两方面研究这一模式是否也延伸至欠发达环境，并以印度尼西亚为案例展开分析。利用印度尼西亚家庭生活调查（IFLS）和人口普查数据，我们考察了三代人教育水平的多代相关性。与既有研究发现相反，我们观察到的多代流动性高于仅由亲子相关性所暗示的水平。我们构建了一个理论框架，以突出影响发展中国家多代动态的两个关键因素：（1）金融和信贷约束；（2）与婚姻匹配相关的文化规范。为验证这两个因素的相关性，我们利用了各地区在1997—1998年亚洲金融危机暴露程度上的差异，以及婚姻习俗方面的地区差异。

Abstract

Standard intergenerational measures have been shown to understate the long-run persistence of socioeconomic advantages in developed countries. We study theoretically and empirically whether this pattern extends to less developed settings, using Indonesia as a case study. Using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) and Census data, we study multigenerational correlations in education across three generations. Contrary to previous findings, we observe greater multigenerational mobility than parent–child correlations alone would suggest. We develop a theoretical framework to highlight two key factors influencing multigenerational dynamics in developing countries: (1) financial and credit constraints, and (2) cultural norms related to marital sorting. To confirm their relevance, we exploit regional variations in exposure to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and in marital customs.