疫苗的政治后果: 来自资格规则的准实验证据

Vaccines are responsible for large increases in human welfare and yet we know little about the political impacts of publicly-managed vaccination campaigns. We fill this gap by studying the case of Chile, which offers a rare combination of a high-stakes election, voluntary voting, and a vaccination process halfway implemented by election day. Crucially, the roll-out of vaccines relied on exogenous eligibility rules which we combine with a pre-analysis plan for causal identification. We find that higher vaccination rates boost political participation and, on average, decrease support for incumbents seeking reelection. An analysis of mechanisms reveals that vaccines affected incumbents differently depending on their performance in office.