Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Emanuele Brancati、Michele Di Maio、Roberta Gatti、Islam Asif M.
中文摘要
本文结合2006年至2019年间89个国家带有地理定位信息的企业层面纵向数据与政治暴力事件信息，首次在全球范围内分析冲突暴露程度对企业绩效的影响。我们的结果表明，冲突暴露程度上升导致销售额和总成本均下降，从而对存活企业的利润没有统计显著的影响。销售额下降由产出减少所驱动，这反映了冲突引发的原材料和生产投入短缺，以及非正规竞争的加剧。企业通过调整劳动力成本，以非熟练工人替代熟练工人，来应对销售额下降。在国际贸易参与程度更高、制度更薄弱、基础设施更薄弱且金融发展水平更低、最初处于和平状态，或冲突空间分布更为分散的国家，冲突对企业的负面影响更为明显。在这些情形下，冲突暴露程度上升导致销售额和利润均下降。
Abstract
This paper provides the first global analysis of the impact of conflict exposure on firm performance, combining geolocalized longitudinal firm-level data with information on political violence events across 89 countries between 2006 and 2019. Our results show that higher conflict exposure leads to declines in both sales and total costs, resulting in no significant effect on profits for surviving firms. The reduction in sales is driven by lower output, which reflects conflict-induced shortages of raw materials and production inputs, as well as increased informal competition. Firms respond to declining sales by adjusting labor costs, substituting skilled workers with unskilled ones. The negative effects of conflict on firms are more pronounced in countries that are more involved in international trade, have weaker institutions, infrastructure, and financial development, were initially at peace, or are characterized by more spatially diffuse conflict. In these settings, greater conflict exposure leads to reductions in both sales and profits.