种族隔离对代际流动的影响：来自历史上铁路布局的证据

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Eric Chyn", "affiliation": ["The University of Texas at Austin"]}, {"name": "Kareem Haggag", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Bryan A. Stuart", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia"]}]

中文摘要

本文为全市范围内的种族隔离对代际流动的因果影响提供了新证据。我们采用工具变量方法，该方法依赖于19世纪铁路轨道布局所导致的、具有合理外生性的种族隔离变异。分析发现，更高的种族隔离降低了各收入阶层家庭黑人儿童以及低收入家庭白人儿童的向上流动性。此外，种族隔离降低了学业成就，同时提高了监禁率和青少年生育率。机制分析表明，种族隔离减少了政府支出，削弱了对反贫困政策的支持，并加剧了白人居民中的种族保守态度。（JEL I38, J13, J15, J62, N32, N72, R30）

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the causal impacts of citywide racial segregation on intergenerational mobility. We use an instrumental variable approach that relies on plausibly exogenous variation in segregation due to the arrangement of railroad tracks in the nineteenth century. Our analysis finds that higher segregation reduces upward mobility for Black children from households across the income distribution and White children from low-income households. Moreover, segregation lowers academic achievement while increasing incarceration and teenage birth rates. An analysis of mechanisms shows that segregation reduces government spending, weakens support for antipoverty policies, and increases racially conservative attitudes among White residents. (JEL I38, J13, J15, J62, N32, N72, R30)