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天气还是气候? 温度冲击的新视角

Weather or Climate? A New Perspective on Temperature Shocks
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Nooman Rebei", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}]

中文摘要

主流研究表明,与发达经济体相比,气候变化给新兴市场和发展中经济体造成了不成比例的负担,带来更大的产出损失,并认为较寒冷地区所受影响小于较温暖地区。本研究重新考察温度波动与实际增长之间的经验关系,创新性地区分了暂时性温度变化与永久性温度变化,二者分别自然对应于天气与气候变化的定义。研究结果显示,较富裕且较寒冷的经济体似乎受天气冲击的影响较小,而对于气候变化扰动,这一模式却发生了反转,从而对以往研究的结论提出了挑战。

Abstract

Prevailing research suggests that climate change disproportionately burdens emerging markets and developing economies with larger output losses compared to advanced economies, positing that colder regions are less impacted than their warmer counterparts. This study revisits the empirical relationship between temperature fluctuations and real growth, with a novel focus on differentiating between transitory versus permanent temperature shifts, aligning naturally with the definitions of weather and climate change, respectively. Our findings reveal that richer and colder economies appear less affected by weather shocks, whereas this pattern reverses for climate change disturbances, challenging the conclusions of previous studies.
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