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天气还是气候?温度冲击的新视角

Weather or Climate? A New Perspective on Temperature Shocks
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Nooman Rebei

中文摘要

主流研究认为,与发达经济体相比,气候变化给新兴市场和发展中经济体造成了不成比例的更大产出损失,并认为较寒冷地区比较温暖地区受到的影响更小。本研究重新考察温度波动与实际经济增长之间的实证关系,创新性地聚焦于区分暂时性与永久性温度变化,二者分别与天气和气候变化的定义自然对应。研究发现,较富裕、较寒冷的经济体似乎较少受到天气冲击的影响,但在气候变化扰动方面,这一模式却发生逆转,从而对既有研究的结论提出了挑战。

Abstract

Prevailing research suggests that climate change disproportionately burdens emerging markets and developing economies with larger output losses compared to advanced economies, positing that colder regions are less impacted than their warmer counterparts. This study revisits the empirical relationship between temperature fluctuations and real growth, with a novel focus on differentiating between transitory versus permanent temperature shifts, aligning naturally with the definitions of weather and climate change, respectively. Our findings reveal that richer and colder economies appear less affected by weather shocks, whereas this pattern reverses for climate change disturbances, challenging the conclusions of previous studies.
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