The Stalled Quiet Revolution: Population Control, Skewed Sex Ratios, and the Widening Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation
中文摘要
中国女性劳动参与率（LFP）的下降，与全球女性经济参与度上升的“静默革命”形成鲜明对比。本文从人口控制政策长期非预期影响的角度，对这一独特趋势提出了新的解释：这些政策扭曲了婚姻市场和劳动力市场的性别比。运用队列双重差分策略，我们发现相对于男性，中国独生子女政策（OCP）的实施使女性劳动参与率显著降低了12个百分点。劳动参与率性别差距的扩大主要由OCP导致的男性偏高性别比所驱动。具体而言，暴露于更严重性别比失衡的女性表现出更高的结婚率和生育率、更优的丈夫质量、更强的家庭内部议价能力、更长的闲暇时间，以及更少与抱负相关的心理特征。劳动力市场扭曲对劳动参与率性别差距的挤出效应仅起次要作用。这些发现解释了中国女性劳动供给持续下降以及劳动参与率性别差距不断扩大的现象。
Abstract
China's declining female labor force participation (LFP) stands in stark contrast to the global “quiet revolution” of rising women's economic engagement. This paper offers a novel explanation for this unique trend through the long-term unintended effects of population control policies, which have distorted sex ratios in both marriage and labor markets. Using a cohort difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the introduction of China's One-Child Policy (OCP) significantly reduced women's LFP by 12 percentage points relative to their male counterparts. The widening gender gap in LFP is primarily driven by male-biased sex ratios resulting from the OCP. Specifically, women exposed to more skewed sex ratios exhibit higher marriage and fertility rates, improved husband quality, greater intra-household bargaining power, extended leisure time, and fewer ambition-related psychological traits. The crowding-out effect of labor market distortions on the gender gap in LFP plays a secondary role. These insights explain the continuing decline in female labor supply and the enlarging gender gap in LFP in China.