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实时不平等

Real-Time Inequality
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Thomas Blanchet、Emmanuel Saez、Gabriel Zucman

中文摘要

本文构建了美国国民收入的月度分布。我们开发了一种方法,通过整合高频公共数据源,分解年度分布并及时推算月度变化。这使我们能够在季度宏观经济增长数据发布后立即估计各社会群体的增长情况,并实时追踪政府政策在经济衰退期间及其后对分配的影响。我们将该方法回溯应用至1976年,以此对其进行检验和验证。估算结果可在 https://realtimeinequality.org 获取。

Abstract

This paper constructs monthly distributions of national income for the United States. We develop a methodology to disaggregate annual distributions and project monthly changes in a timely manner by combining high-frequency public data sources. This allows us to estimate growth by social groups as soon as quarterly macroeconomic growth numbers are released, and to track the distributional impacts of government policies during and in the aftermath of recessions in real time. We test and validate our methodology by implementing it retrospectively back to 1976. Estimates are available at https://realtimeinequality.org.
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