高铁与中国电动汽车普及奇迹
High-Speed Rail and China's Electric Vehicle Adoption Miracle
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Hanming Fang", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Xiaogang Li", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Long Wang", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Zoe Yang", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本文以中国高速铁路（高铁）系统的扩张作为准自然实验, 分析2010年至2023年的全面车辆登记数据, 以估计高铁连通性对电动汽车（EV）采用的因果影响。通过实施多种识别策略——包括交错（分批）双重差分（DID）、Callaway and Sant'Anna（CS）DID, 以及两种工具变量方法——我们一致发现：通过缓解里程焦虑, 高铁扩张最多可解释样本期内中国电动汽车市场份额和电动汽车销量增长的三分之一, 且这一效应在由速度更快的高铁线路服务的城市尤为显著。在控制地方产业政策、充电基础设施增长、供给侧因素和经济发展后, 上述结果依然稳健。我们还发现, 高铁连通性放大了充电基础设施和消费者购车补贴在促进电动汽车采用方面的效力。
Abstract
Using China's expansion of the high-speed rail system (HSR) as a quasi-natural experiment, we analyze the comprehensive vehicle registration data from 2010 to 2023 to estimate the causal impact of HSR connectivity on the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).Implementing several identification strategies, including staggered difference-in-differences (DID), Callaway and Sant'Anna (CS) DID, and two instrumental-variable approaches, we consistently find that, by alleviating range anxiety, the expansion of HSR can account for up to one third of the increase in EV market share and EV sales in China during our sample period, with effects particularly pronounced in cities served by faster HSR lines.The results remain robust when controlling for local industrial policies, charging infrastructure growth, supply-side factors, and economic development.We also find that HSR connectivity amplifies the effectiveness of charging infrastructure and consumer purchase subsidies in promoting EV adoption.