用于交通评估的定量城市模型
A quantitative urban model for transport appraisal
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Dániel Hörcher", "affiliation": ["Corvinus University of Budapest", "Budapest University of Technology and Economics", "Imperial College London"]}, {"name": "Daniel J. Graham", "affiliation": ["Imperial College London"]}]
中文摘要
理解大型交通基础设施项目的空间经济影响,对于促进现代经济中资源的高效配置至关重要。然而,当前交通政策中的经济评估实践大体上局限于局部均衡模型——这类模型仅孤立地关注交通市场,忽视了大规模干预所具有的变革性影响。本文借鉴定量空间经济学(空间经济学文献中一个新兴领域)的方法论原则,设计了一种能够捕捉交通供给与劳动力、生产及房地产市场之间相互作用的评估方法。我们模型中的旅行时间估值,通过显式的闲暇—劳动权衡获得微观基础,因而对每一组居住地—工作地配对而言都是独特的。该模型具有可逆性,适用于在理论和地理上一致地对特质性区位选择偏好的离散程度、以及集聚力量的强度与距离衰减进行因果估计。
Abstract
Understanding the spatial economic impacts of large-scale transport infrastructure projects is vital for promoting ecient resource allocation in modern economies. However, the current practice of economic evaluation in transport policy is largely conned to partial equilibrium models, which focus solely on transport markets in isolation, ignoring the transformative impact of large-scale interventions. In this paper, we build upon the methodological principles of quantitative spatial economics, an emerging eld within the spatial economics literature, to design an appraisal method that captures the interactions between transport supply and the labour, production and real estate markets. Our model features travel time valuations that are micro-founded through an explicit leisure-labour trade-o, making them unique to each residence-workplace pair. The model is invertible and suitable for the theoretically and geographically coherent causal estimation of the dispersion of idiosyncratic location choice preferences and the strength and distance decay of agglomeration forces.
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