信任与民主：经济危机时期的政治稳定
Trust and Democracy: Political Stability in Times of Economic Crisis
The Economic Journal · 2026 · [{"name": "Nathan Nunn", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia"]}, {"name": "Nancy Qian", "affiliation": ["Northwestern University", "Kellogg's (Canada)"]}, {"name": "Jaya Wen", "affiliation": ["Harvard University", "Harvard University Press", "Dana-Farber/Harvard Cancer Center", "IIT@Harvard"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们研究民主国家中人际信任与政治稳定之间的关系。利用一个涵盖六十年、年度国家层面的面板数据集, 我们发现, 在普遍人际信任水平较低的国家, 经济衰退更可能导致政治更替。该效应存在于民主国家而非专制国家, 存在于通过常规程序而非政变发生的更替中, 并出现在定期举行选举的年份。当我们考察欧洲的次国家区域、美国的各县以及美国县内的个体时, 也发现了信任与经济衰退期间领导人更替之间类似的联系。我们的研究结果凸显了普遍信任在经济动荡时期确保政治稳定方面的关键作用。
Abstract
Abstract We study the relationship between interpersonal trust and political stability in democratic countries. Using an annual country-level panel dataset covering six decades, we find that recessions are more likely to cause political turnover in countries with lower levels of generalised interpersonal trust. The effect is present in democracies and not autocracies, for turnovers occurring through regular procedures and not coups, and during regularly scheduled election years. We find an analogous connection between trust and leader turnover during recessions when looking across sub-national regions in Europe, across counties in the United States, and across individuals in U.S. counties. Our results highlight the crucial role of generalised trust in ensuring political stability during times of economic turmoil.