选票、预算与砖瓦: 英国脱欧与个体经济行为的极化
Ballots, Budgets and Bricks: Brexit and The Polarisation of Individual Economic Behaviours
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Pei Kuang", "affiliation": ["University of Macau"]}, {"name": "Davide Luca", "affiliation": ["University of Cambridge"]}, {"name": "Zhiwu Wei", "affiliation": ["University of Cambridge"]}]
中文摘要
政治极化是否会影响实际经济行为？利用英国全国代表性调查和行政数据，本文记录了英国脱欧公投如何使“脱欧”支持者与“留欧”支持者之间在个体微观和宏观预期上出现显著分化。与现有研究相比，我们表明这些极化效应是由某一具体政策议题驱动的，而大多与传统党派认同无关。我们还证明了这些分化的信念如何影响重大的实际财务决策：“脱欧”支持者变得更有可能购买耐用品并参与住房交易，而“脱欧”支持者占比更高的地区则经历了住房交易量增加和房价上涨。
Abstract
Does political polarisation influence actual economic behaviours? Using British nationally representative surveys and administrative data, we document how the Brexit referendum triggered stark divergences in individual micro and macro expectations between Leave and Remain supporters. Compared to existing research, we show how these polarising effects were driven by a specific policy issue and mostly unrelated to traditional partisan identities. We also demonstrate howthese diverging beliefs influenced major real financial decisions. Leavers became more likely to purchase durable goods and engage in housing transactions, and areas with higher proportions of Leave voters experienced increased housing transaction volumes and rising prices.