通过人员流动实现性别平等: 来自意大利任期制改革的准实验证据
Gender Equality Through Turnover: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Term Limit Reforms in Italy
Journal of Public Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Carolina Kansikas", "affiliation": ["University of Warwick"]}, {"name": "Manuel Bagues", "affiliation": ["University of Warwick"]}]
中文摘要
我们通过分析意大利地方选举中的两项改革，研究任期限制是否能够加快女性进入最高政治职位；这两项改革将市长任期限制从两个五年任期延长至三个五年任期。在女性政治参与快速增长的时期，第一项改革于2014年影响人口少于3000人的市镇，第二项改革于2022年影响人口少于5000人的市镇。利用断点差分设计（difference-in-discontinuities design），我们发现更长的任期限制限制了早期职业生涯政治家的机会，并对女性代表性产生实质性影响：如果没有任期限制的延长，女性市长的比例将高出8个百分点。该影响在较低政治职位中女性更多、且存在市议会成员性别配额的市镇更大，这表明当与促进高层职位更替的政策相配合时，入门级性别配额可能更为有效。
• 意大利于2014年和2022年在人口阈值以下延长了市长任期限制。
• 我们在3000和5000两个断点处采用断点差分设计。
• 如果没有这些改革，女性市长的比例将高出8个百分点。
• 该效应通过在任者留任发挥作用，而非通过性别化的任职期限偏好。
• 任期限制与入门级性别配额在促进女性代表性方面相互补充。
Abstract
We study whether term limits can accelerate women’s access to top political positions by analyzing two reforms in Italian local elections that extended mayoral term limits from two to three five-year terms. In a period marked by rapid growth in women’s political participation, the first reform affected municipalities with fewer than 3000 inhabitants in 2014, and the second those below 5000 in 2022. Using a difference-in-discontinuities design, we find that longer term limits restrict opportunities for early-career politicians, with substantial effects on female representation: the share of female mayors would be 8 percentage points higher without the term limit extensions. The impact is larger in municipalities with more women in lower political positions and where gender quotas for council members are present, suggesting that entry-level quotas can be more effective when paired with policies promoting turnover in top positions. • Italy extended mayoral term limits below population thresholds in 2014 and 2022. • We use a difference-in-discontinuities design at the 3000 and 5000 cutoffs. • Without the reforms, the share of female mayors would be 8 p.p. higher. • The effect operates through incumbent retention, not gender preferences for tenure. • Term limits complement entry-level gender quotas in promoting female representation.