Gender Equality Through Turnover: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Term Limit Reforms in Italy
中文摘要
我们通过分析意大利地方选举中的两项改革，研究任期限制能否加快女性进入最高政治职位的进程。这两项改革将市长任期限制从两个五年任期延长至三个五年任期。在女性政治参与迅速增长的时期，第一项改革于2014年影响人口少于3000人的市镇，第二项改革于2022年影响人口少于5000人的市镇。采用断点-双重差分设计，我们发现更长的任期限制压缩了政治生涯早期政治人物的机会，并对女性代表性产生了显著影响：若无此次任期限制延长，女性市长的占比将高出8个百分点。在较低层级政治职位中女性较多、以及实行议会议员性别配额的市镇，这一影响更大，这表明当入门层级的性别配额与促进最高职位更替的政策相结合时，可能更为有效。• 意大利于2014年和2022年在人口门槛以下的市镇延长了市长任期限制。• 我们在3000人和5000人的临界点采用断点-双重差分设计。• 若无这些改革，女性市长的占比将高出8个百分点。• 这一效应通过现任市长留任产生，而非源于不同性别对任期长短的偏好。• 任期限制与入门层级的性别配额相互补充，共同促进女性代表性。
Abstract
We study whether term limits can accelerate women’s access to top political positions by analyzing two reforms in Italian local elections that extended mayoral term limits from two to three five-year terms. In a period marked by rapid growth in women’s political participation, the first reform affected municipalities with fewer than 3000 inhabitants in 2014, and the second those below 5000 in 2022. Using a difference-in-discontinuities design, we find that longer term limits restrict opportunities for early-career politicians, with substantial effects on female representation: the share of female mayors would be 8 percentage points higher without the term limit extensions. The impact is larger in municipalities with more women in lower political positions and where gender quotas for council members are present, suggesting that entry-level quotas can be more effective when paired with policies promoting turnover in top positions. • Italy extended mayoral term limits below population thresholds in 2014 and 2022. • We use a difference-in-discontinuities design at the 3000 and 5000 cutoffs. • Without the reforms, the share of female mayors would be 8 p.p. higher. • The effect operates through incumbent retention, not gender preferences for tenure. • Term limits complement entry-level gender quotas in promoting female representation.