早期公共育儿能降低儿童惩罚吗? 来自德国的证据

This paper studies the effects of public childcare expansion for children under age three in Germany on mothers’ child penalties. Exploiting county-level variation in the expansion, we find that a 20-percentage-point increase in childcare coverage rate reduces earnings penalties by 4.5 percentage points. This accounts for about 56% of the total 8-percentage-point decline in earnings penalties over the reform period. Early childcare increases employment and days worked, especially in full-time and non-marginal positions. It also raises daily wages and increases the likelihood that mothers work in higher-paying firms and occupations. These effects persist beyond the early childcare eligibility period. We further identify two key contextual factors explaining the positive effects of early childcare: the initial level of child penalties and reliance on informal care. In settings with high child penalties and limited alternatives, early public childcare can yield substantial lasting benefits for mothers’ careers. • Germany substantially expanded public childcare for children under age three. • This expansion persistently reduced mothers’ child penalties. • Mothers work more, earn higher wages, and sort into full-time and better-paying jobs. • Effects are larger where child penalties are high and informal care is scarce.