中文摘要
本文研究德国面向三岁以下儿童的公共托育扩张对母亲生育惩罚的影响。利用县级层面托育扩张的差异，我们发现托育覆盖率提高20个百分点，会使收入惩罚降低4.5个百分点，约占改革期间收入惩罚总体下降8个百分点的56%。早期托育提高了母亲的就业率和工作天数，尤其增加了全职和非边际就业。它还提高了日工资，并增加了母亲在薪酬较高的企业和职业中工作的可能性。这些影响在早期托育资格期结束后仍然持续。我们进一步识别出解释早期托育积极影响的两个关键情境因素：生育惩罚的初始水平，以及对非正规照料的依赖程度。在生育惩罚较高且替代性照料选择有限的情境下，早期公共托育可为母亲的职业发展带来显著且持久的益处。• 德国大幅扩展了面向三岁以下儿童的公共托育。• 此次扩张持续降低了母亲的生育惩罚。• 母亲工作更多、工资更高，并更多地进入全职和薪酬更高的工作岗位。• 在生育惩罚较高且非正规照料稀缺的地区，影响更大。
Abstract
This paper studies the effects of public childcare expansion for children under age three in Germany on mothers’ child penalties. Exploiting county-level variation in the expansion, we find that a 20-percentage-point increase in childcare coverage rate reduces earnings penalties by 4.5 percentage points. This accounts for about 56% of the total 8-percentage-point decline in earnings penalties over the reform period. Early childcare increases employment and days worked, especially in full-time and non-marginal positions. It also raises daily wages and increases the likelihood that mothers work in higher-paying firms and occupations. These effects persist beyond the early childcare eligibility period. We further identify two key contextual factors explaining the positive effects of early childcare: the initial level of child penalties and reliance on informal care. In settings with high child penalties and limited alternatives, early public childcare can yield substantial lasting benefits for mothers’ careers. • Germany substantially expanded public childcare for children under age three. • This expansion persistently reduced mothers’ child penalties. • Mothers work more, earn higher wages, and sort into full-time and better-paying jobs. • Effects are larger where child penalties are high and informal care is scarce.