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基于地方财政政策项目识别税收设定反应

Identifying Tax-Setting Responses From Local Fiscal Policy Programs
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Georg Thunecke、Andreas Schanbacher、Valeria Merlo、Georg Wamser

中文摘要

本文提供了关于战略性税收政策互动动态的事件研究证据。以德国市镇参与州级债务削减项目作为准外生冲击,我们展示了这些项目如何影响参与市镇的税率。随后,我们说明了未直接受项目影响的竞争市镇如何相应调整其税率。运用两样本 Wald 估计量将上述两个步骤结合起来,项目参与市镇税率每变动一个单位,竞争市镇的战略性反应在地方工商税上介于 0.66 至 0.70 之间,在财产税上介于 0.34 至 0.49 之间。市镇的特征,尤其是地理邻近性,会影响税收相互依存的规模与范围。

Abstract

This paper provides event-study evidence on the dynamics of strategic tax-policy interactions. Using the participation of German municipalities in state debt reduction programs as a quasi-exogenous shock, we demonstrate how these programs affect tax rates of participating municipalities. We then illustrate how competing municipalities – not directly affected by the program – adjust their tax rates in response. Combining both steps using a two-sample Wald estimator, the strategic response of competitors to a one-unit tax change by program participants ranges from 0.66 to 0.70 for the local business tax and 0.34 to 0.49 for the property tax. Characteristics of municipalities, especially proximity, influence the size and scope of tax interdependence.

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