碳定价能否缓解气候变化?来自欧盟排放交易体系的企业层面证据

Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · [{"name": "Jonathan Colmer", "affiliation": ["University of Virginia"]}, {"name": "Ralf Martin", "affiliation": ["International Finance Corporation", "Imperial College London"]}, {"name": "Mirabelle Muûls", "affiliation": ["NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre", "Imperial College London", "National Bank of Belgium"]}, {"name": "Ulrich J. Wagner", "affiliation": ["University of Mannheim"]}]

中文摘要

摘要：理论上，基于市场的监管工具能够以最低成本纠正市场失灵。然而，关于其有效性的证据仍然稀缺。利用行政数据，我们估计，平均而言，欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）——全球首个且规模最大的基于市场的气候政策——促使受监管的制造业企业将二氧化碳排放量减少了14%–16%，且未发现经济活动出现可察觉的收缩。我们没有发现向不受监管的企业或市场外包的证据；相反，企业进行了有针对性的投资，降低了生产的排放强度。这些结果表明，EU ETS 促成了全球范围内的减排，这是缓解气候变化的一个必要且充分条件。我们表明，不存在任何负面经济效应这一现象，可以在如下模型中得到合理化：在该模型中，对外部性定价促使企业对节能资本进行固定成本投资，从而降低边际可变成本。

Abstract

Abstract In theory, market-based regulatory instruments correct market failures at least cost. However, evidence on their efficacy remains scarce. Using administrative data, we estimate that, on average, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)—the world’s first and largest market-based climate policy—induced regulated manufacturing firms to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 14–16% with no detectable contractions in economic activity. We find no evidence of outsourcing to unregulated firms or markets; instead, firms made targeted investments, reducing the emissions intensity of production. These results indicate that the EU ETS induced global emissions reductions, a necessary and sufficient condition for mitigating climate change. We show that the absence of any negative economic effects can be rationalized in a model where pricing the externality induces firms to make fixed-cost investments in energy-saving capital that reduce marginal variable costs.