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谁是无资产家庭?

Who Are the Hand-to-Mouth?
Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · [{"name": "Mark Aguiar", "affiliation": ["Princeton University"]}, {"name": "Mark Bils", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond", "University of Rochester"]}, {"name": "Corina Boar", "affiliation": ["New York University"]}]

中文摘要

摘要:许多家庭几乎不持有财富。在标准的预防性储蓄模型中,这些家庭不仅应表现出更高的边际消费倾向(MPC),还应表现出更高的未来消费增长。然而,我们从收入动态面板调查(PSID)数据中观察到,此类“月光”家庭并未表现出更高的支出增长。它们的支出波动性也更大,并且更大程度地通过消费类别数量的变化来调整支出。与偏好异质性发挥作用这一解释相一致,面板数据显示,能够预测“月光”家庭较低消费增长及其他支出差异的,是家庭之间的持久性差异,而非当前资产状况。为识别偏好异质性的程度,我们采用 Kaplan 和 Violante 同时包含流动资产与非流动资产的模型,但允许偏好存在异质性。为匹配数据,许多贫穷的“月光”家庭必须相对缺乏耐心,且具有较高的跨期替代弹性。模型表明,偏好差异是低资产家庭具有较高边际消费倾向的主要原因。偏好异质性显著提高了财政转移支付的支出效应,但仅在转移支付具有针对性时才成立,同时降低了降息对支出的影响。

Abstract

Abstract Many households hold little wealth. In standard precautionary savings models, these households should not only display higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) but also higher future consumption growth. In contrast, we see from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics that such “hand-to-mouth” households do not display higher growth in spending. They also exhibit greater volatility of spending and adjust their spending to a greater extent through the number of categories consumed. Consistent with a role for preference heterogeneity, the panel data show that it is persistent differences across households, not current assets, that predict low consumption growth and other spending differences for the hand-to-mouth households. To identify the extent of preference heterogeneity, we consider the model of Kaplan and Violante with both liquid and illiquid assets, but allow heterogeneity in preferences. To match the data, many poor hand-to-mouth must be relatively impatient and have a high inter-temporal elasticity of substitution. The model shows that preferences predominantly explain the higher MPCs for low-asset households. Preference heterogeneity notably increases the spending impact of fiscal transfers, but only if targeted, while reducing that from interest rate cuts.
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