独生子女政策、婚姻扭曲与福利损失
One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2023 · [{"name": "Wei Huang", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Yinghao Pan", "affiliation": ["Renmin University of China"]}, {"name": "Yi Zhou", "affiliation": ["King University", "Peking University"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们考察了成年早期暴露于独生子女政策（OCP）如何影响中国的婚姻与生育。通过考察各省份随时间变化的生育惩罚以及不同民族间政策实施方式的差异，我们发现，OCP 显著提高了汉族的未婚率，但未显著提高少数民族的未婚率。在允许汉族—少数民族夫妻额外生育一个孩子的地区，OCP 增加了汉族与少数民族之间的通婚，但在其他地区，这一影响较小。最后，生育率下降造成的无谓损失占家庭年收入的 10%，而政策诱致的婚姻减少解释了生育率下降的 30%。
Abstract
Abstract We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10% of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30% of the fertility decline.