Review of Economics and Statistics · 2024 · [{"name": "Gillian Brunet", "affiliation": ["Smith College"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：本文使用新近数字化的 1940—1945 年美国战时生产支出合同数据，分析第二次世界大战期间美国军事支出的宏观经济效应。研究发现，个人收入乘数在两年期为 0.34，在三年期为 0.49。个人收入乘数可能大幅低估国内生产总值乘数，低估幅度或许高达 50%。就业估计表明，以 2015 年美元计，相同时间跨度内每个工作年的成本分别为 405,013 美元和 232,268 美元，表明创造就业的效果有限。本文还发现负规模效应的证据：更大的正向支出冲击与系统性更小的乘数估计相关。
Abstract
Abstract I use newly digitized contract data on U.S. war production spending over 1940–1945 to analyze the macroeconomic effects of U.S. military spending in World War II. I find personal income multipliers of 0.34 over two years and 0.49 over three years. Personal income multipliers may substantially understate gross domestic product multipliers, perhaps by as much as 50%. Employment estimates imply costs per job-year over the same time horizons of $405,013 and $232,268 in 2015 dollars, suggesting job creation was limited. I also find evidence of negative scale effects: larger positive spending shocks are associated with systematically smaller multiplier estimates.