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企业层面不确定性与货币政策的传导

Firm-Level Uncertainty and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2026 · Aeimit Lakdawala、Timothy Moreland

中文摘要

我们表明,面临较高不确定性的企业对货币政策冲击的投资调整幅度较小。我们从联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)公告日的企业层面股票回报中找到了支持这种差异效应的佐证证据。我们的结果与一种实物期权(或观望)渠道相一致,即较高的不确定性会抑制企业对商业条件变化的反应。与这一机制相一致的是,对于面临较高可逆性的企业,这种抑制效应更强。

Abstract

Abstract We show that firms that face higher uncertainty adjust their investment less in response to monetary policy shocks. We find corroborating evidence of this differential effect from firm-level stock returns on FOMC announcement days. Our results are consistent with a real options (or wait-and-see) channel whereby higher uncertainty dampens the response to changes in business conditions. Consistent with this mechanism, the dampening effect is stronger for firms that face higher reversibility.
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