基础设施的（财政）红利：卢旺达的道路与收入
The (fiscal) dividend of infrastructure: Roads and revenues in Rwanda
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Abdou Musonera", "affiliation": ["Ministry of Infrastructure"]}, {"name": "Aimable Nsabimana", "affiliation": ["World Bank Group"]}, {"name": "Daniel Overbeck", "affiliation": ["National University of Singapore"]}]
中文摘要
本文表明，基础设施投资能够改善地方税收结果。我们利用一个新颖的数据集——将卢旺达所有道路升级的地点与时间信息同12年的行政税收和人口普查记录相结合——估计发现，升级道路附近的市镇税收收入出现了大幅且统计显著的增加。这些效应由企业进入以及土地价值升值所驱动，后者通过地方层面的租金收入税得以体现。最后，我们表明，尽管新增收入并未完全收回中央政府的初始投资，但在道路升级后的五年内，地方市镇的收入在道路升级后五年内增加了一倍以上。
Abstract
This paper shows that infrastructure investments enhance local tax outcomes. Drawing on a novel dataset combining information on the location and timing of all road upgrades in Rwanda with 12 years of administrative tax and census records, we estimate large and significant increases in tax revenues in municipalities near upgraded roads. These effects are driven by firm entry as well as land value appreciation, captured through taxes on rental income at the local level. Finally, we show that while the additional revenues do not fully recover the central government’s initial investment, local municipalities’ revenues more than double within five years following the upgrades.
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