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基础设施的(财政)红利:卢旺达的道路与收入

The (fiscal) dividend of infrastructure: Roads and revenues in Rwanda
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Abdou Musonera、Aimable Nsabimana、Daniel Overbeck

中文摘要

本文表明,基础设施投资能够改善地方税收结果。基于一个新颖数据集——该数据集将卢旺达所有道路升级项目的地点与时间信息,同12年的行政税收记录与人口普查记录相结合——我们估计发现,升级道路附近市镇的税收收入出现大幅且统计显著的增长。这些效应由企业进入以及土地价值升值共同驱动,后者通过地方层面的租金收入税得以体现。最后,我们表明,尽管新增收入并未完全收回中央政府的初始投资,但道路升级后的五年内,地方市镇的收入增长了一倍以上。

Abstract

This paper shows that infrastructure investments enhance local tax outcomes. Drawing on a novel dataset combining information on the location and timing of all road upgrades in Rwanda with 12 years of administrative tax and census records, we estimate large and significant increases in tax revenues in municipalities near upgraded roads. These effects are driven by firm entry as well as land value appreciation, captured through taxes on rental income at the local level. Finally, we show that while the additional revenues do not fully recover the central government’s initial investment, local municipalities’ revenues more than double within five years following the upgrades.

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