后见之明偏见与对政府的信任
Hindsight Bias and Trust in Government
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2024 · [{"name": "Holger Herz", "affiliation": ["University of Fribourg"]}, {"name": "Deborah Kistler", "affiliation": ["ETH Zurich"]}, {"name": "Christian Zehnder", "affiliation": ["University of Lausanne"]}, {"name": "Christian Zihlmann", "affiliation": ["Bern University of Applied Sciences", "University of Fribourg"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 我们实证评估后见之明偏误是否影响公民对其政治行动者的评价。借助一种激励相容的引出技术，我们证明人们会系统性地错误记忆自己过去关于如何最好地应对 COVID-19 大流行的政策偏好。在美国第一波疫情高峰期，平均受访者错误地认为，自己在第一波疫情开始时所支持的限制措施，比其实际支持的程度显著更严格。通过一项随机调查实验诱导产生的后见之明偏误程度的外生变异表明，后见之明偏误对政府信任变化具有负向因果影响。
Abstract
Abstract We empirically assess whether hindsight bias affects citizens’ evaluation of their political actors. Using an incentivized elicitation technique, we demonstrate that people systematically misremember their past policy preferences regarding how to best fight the COVID-19 pandemic. At the peak of the first wave in the United States, the average respondent mistakenly believed that they supported significantly stricter restrictions at the onset of the first wave than they actually did. Exogenous variation in the extent of hindsight bias, induced through a randomized survey experiment, indicates that hindsight bias has a negative causal impact on the change in trust in government.