信贷条件会推高房价吗
Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Daniel Greenwald", "affiliation": ["Nemocnice Šternberk"]}, {"name": "Adam Guren", "affiliation": ["Boston University"]}]
中文摘要
信贷是否驱动了2000年代的住房周期？现有文献的结论从信贷没有影响到信贷解释了该周期的大部分不等。我们表明，这些迥异的结果取决于房东吸收信贷驱动型需求的程度，而这又取决于住房市场的分割程度。我们构建了一个模型，嵌套了通常被考察的无分割与完全分割两个极端之间的情形，估计出一个用于确定分割程度的弹性，并以此校准我们的模型。我们发现，信贷标准发挥了重要作用，解释了繁荣的32%至53%。（JEL E32, E44, G51, R21, R31）
Abstract
Did credit drive the 2000s housing cycle? The existing literature’s findings range from credit having no effect to credit explaining most of the cycle. We show that these disparate results hinge on the extent to which landlords absorb credit-driven demand, which depends on the degree of housing market segmentation. We develop a model that nests cases between the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation typically considered, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmentation, and use it to calibrate our model. We find credit standards played an important role, explaining 32 percent to 53 percent of the boom. (JEL E32, E44, G51, R21, R31)