中文摘要
在市场环境中估计与政策相关的处理效应，需要同时评估直接处理收益以及市场均衡变化所引致的溢出效应。我们展示了如何利用在单一大型市场内开展的单位随机化试验来识别和估计与政策相关的处理效应。伯努利随机化试验可以一致地估计直接效应，以及有助于实现福利改进型定向施策的处理异质性度量。估计溢出效应——并为直接效应提供置信区间——需要价格弹性的估计，我们通过一种增强型实验设计提供了这些估计。我们使用一个根据菲律宾有条件现金转移实验校准的模拟来说明本文的结果。(JEL C21, C51, I32, I38, O15)
Abstract
Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in a marketplace setting requires assessing both the direct treatment benefit and spillovers induced by changes to the market equilibrium. We show how to identify and estimate policy-relevant treatment effects using a unit-randomized trial run within a single large market. A Bernoulli-randomized trial allows consistent estimation of direct effects and of treatment-heterogeneity measures that enable welfare-improving targeting. Estimating spillovers—and providing confidence intervals for the direct effect—requires estimates of price elasticities, which we provide using an augmented experimental design. We illustrate our results using a simulation calibrated to a conditional cash-transfer experiment in the Philippines. (JEL C21, C51, I32, I38, O15)