American Economic Review · 2025 · John Coglianese、Maria Olsson、Christina Patterson
中文摘要
我们分析了瑞典 2010—2011 年的一次货币准实验，当时瑞典央行大幅加息。我们认为，此次加息超出了劳动力市场状况所能支持的范围，而是由对金融稳定的新担忧所驱动。通过一系列可排除国内外混杂因素的设定，我们表明，此次货币紧缩导致了显著的经济收缩，使失业率上升了 1—2 个百分点。利用行政微观数据，我们发现，名义工资刚性部门主导了大部分反应，且此次货币紧缩比典型商业周期更具累退性。(JEL E24, E32, E43, E52, E58)
Abstract
We analyze a monetary quasi–experiment in Sweden from 2010–2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1–2 percentage points. Using administrative microdata, we find that sectors with nominal wage rigidity drove much of the response and that the monetary contraction was more regressive than the typical business cycle. (JEL E24, E32, E43, E52, E58)