农村养老金、劳动重新配置与总收入：来自中国的实证与定量分析
Rural Pensions, Labor Reallocation, and Aggregate Income: An Empirical and Quantitative Analysis of China
Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Qingen Gai", "affiliation": ["Shanghai Jiao Tong University"]}, {"name": "Naijia Guo", "affiliation": ["University of Hong Kong"]}, {"name": "Bingjing Li", "affiliation": ["University of Hong Kong"]}, {"name": "Qinghua Shi", "affiliation": ["Shanghai Jiao Tong University"]}, {"name": "Xiaodong Zhu", "affiliation": ["University of Hong Kong"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用中国一项农村养老金政策的实施，估计受该政策影响的工人的平均农村向城市迁移成本，以及潜在的平均部门生产率差异。基于大型面板数据集的估计结果显示，迁移成本显著、部门生产率差异巨大，而排序在解释部门间劳动收入差距方面的作用较小。我们构建并结构估计了一个具有内生劳动供给和迁移决策的一般均衡家庭模型。该模型的结果与简约式分析发现一致，并说明了农村养老金政策如何通过改善家庭内部的劳动配置来影响迁移、GDP 和福利。基于该模型的反事实分析表明，即使迁移成本大幅降低，该政策的正向效应依然存在；而扩大农村养老金政策的实施规模，将为劳动配置、GDP 和福利带来更大的改善。
Abstract
We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural‐to‐urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium household model with endogenous labor supply and migration. The results of this model align with the reduced‐form findings and illustrate how the rural pension policy influences migration, GDP, and welfare through improving within‐household labor allocation. Counterfactual analyses based on the model show that the positive effects of the policy remain even if migration costs were significantly lower, and that scaling up the rural pension policy would lead to even larger improvements in labor allocation, GDP, and welfare.