动态有效经济体中持续运行初级赤字的可行性与最优性
Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality
Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Andrew B. Abel", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of Pennsylvania"]}, {"name": "Stavros Panageas", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of California, Los Angeles"]}]
中文摘要
在某些随机经济体中（包括部分动态有效的经济体），政府债务可以在没有基本盈余的情况下无限展期。在一个劳动增强型生产率以恒定增长率 g 增长、且资本耐久性存在冲击的世代交叠模型中，我们表明：沿着平衡增长路径，当无风险利率 r_f 等于 g 时，债券与资本之比达到其最大可持续水平。此外，这一最大比率使平衡增长路径上的人均效用最大化，并确保该经济体是动态有效的。
Abstract
Government debt can be rolled over forever without primary surpluses in some stochastic economies, including some economies that are dynamically efficient. In an overlapping‐generations model with constant growth rate, g , of labor‐augmenting productivity, and with shocks to the durability of capital, we show that along a balanced growth path, the maximum sustainable ratio of bonds to capital is attained when the risk‐free interest rate, r f , equals g . Furthermore, this maximal ratio maximizes utility per capita along a balanced growth path and ensures that the economy is dynamically efficient.