生育控制政策对生育率的代际影响：规范的作用
The Intergenerational Impact of Birth-Control Policies on Fertility: The Role of Norms
The Economic Journal · 2026 · [{"name": "Rufei Guo", "affiliation": ["Institute of Health Economics"]}, {"name": "Lin Lin", "affiliation": ["Renmin University of China"]}, {"name": "Junjian Yi", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}, {"name": "Hanyu Zhu", "affiliation": ["Central University of Finance and Economics"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：我们研究生育控制政策对生育率的代际影响，并考察这些政策在废止之后是否以及如何仍会降低生育率。我们构建了一个整合生育规范内生演化的模型。生育控制政策通过降低母亲的生育率而确立新的规范，进而塑造后续世代的生育决策。因此，即使政策不再生效，女儿一代的生育率也会因这些新规范而更低。为检验模型的推论，我们利用中国独生子女政策所提供的准实验环境；该政策自1979年起以交错（分批）方式实施，并自2014年起逐步退出。基于最新发布的2020年人口普查，我们的结果表明，该政策具有降低生育率的作用，并影响到已不再受其规定约束的世代。本研究首次从代际视角为生育控制政策提供了因果证据，并凸显了规范在塑造生育结果中的作用。
Abstract
Abstract We study the intergenerational impact of birth-control policies on fertility and examine whether and how these policies reduce fertility, even after their abolition. We develop a model that integrates the endogenous evolution of fertility norms. Birth-control policies, through the reduction of mothers’ fertility, establish new norms that shape the fertility decisions of subsequent generations. Consequently, daughters’ fertility is lower due to these new norms, even when the policies are no longer in force. To test the model’s implications, we leverage a quasi-experimental setting provided by China’s One-Child Policy, which was implemented in a staggered manner starting in 1979 and gradually phased out beginning in 2014. Based on the recently released 2020 population census, our results reveal that the policy has an impact on reducing fertility and affects generations no longer subject to its regulations. This study is the first to provide causal evidence of birth-control policies from an intergenerational perspective and highlights the role of norms in shaping fertility outcomes.