公共研发的宏观经济效应
Macroeconomic Effects of Public R&D
The Economic Journal · 2026 · [{"name": "Vincenzo De Lipsis", "affiliation": ["Energy Institute", "University of Southampton", "University College London"]}, {"name": "Matteo Deleidi", "affiliation": ["Montagu Hospital", "University College London", "University of Bari Aldo Moro"]}, {"name": "Mariana Mazzucato", "affiliation": ["Montagu Hospital", "University College London"]}, {"name": "Paolo Agnolucci", "affiliation": ["Energy Institute", "University College London", "World Bank Group"]}]
中文摘要
摘要：通过直接公共资助研发投资来刺激技术创新具有强有力的理论依据，并且近来作为应对现代社会长期挑战（如经济增长、气候变化、能源独立与国家安全）的一种方式重新受到关注。我们估计了政府研发投资的动态宏观经济效应，发现其非常有效地促进了国家创新努力——通过挤入私人研发投资并在长期提高总产出；但同时也发现，它从一开始就刺激了强劲扩张，尤其是通过预期效应。
Abstract
Abstract Direct public funding of R&D investment to stimulate technological innovation has a strong theoretical case and has gained renewed attention in recent times as a way to address the long-term challenges of modern society, such as economic growth, climate change, energy independence, and national security. We estimate the dynamic macroeconomic effects of government R&D investment and we find that it is very effective in fostering the national innovation effort by crowding in private R&D investment and raising aggregate output in the long run, but also that it stimulates a strong expansion from the outset, in particular through anticipation effects.